Was it the Rust Belt?

Reading this flawed pre-election analysis, I wonder if it was the Rust Belt that won it for Trump. Pennsylvania. Michigan? Ohio. Wisconsin. Iowa?

Can Donald Trump win the election? Here’s the mathematical reason why it’s impossible for him to become President


These same Rust Belt states went blue in the last election:



In other words, Hillary was unacceptable to people living in places like Ohio, Iowa and Pennsylvania, who had previously found Obama acceptable.

Here is where white Catholics live in the US. Notice their high numbers in the Rust Belt. The abortion issue might have been of some importance, although it did not apparently make a difference in some states like Connecticut, Massachusetts and Illinois with large Catholic populations.





9 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Julian O'Dea on November 10, 2016 at 10:10 am

    It looks too like Colorado has gone bluer and Florida redder now. The Republicans get the better of this particular trade-off because Florida has more electoral votes of course.


  2. Catholic plus traditional values. Catholics in New England are notoriously at odds with anything coming from Rome. Pretty often in the Midwest, too, but especially in the Northeast.

    Worth noting as well that evangelicals, seeing the disasters that would accompany a Clinton Presidency, decided to show up even though we often don’t like Trump much. Also a big deal in the Midwest.

    I think Trump also showed the GOP that if you take a look at the concerns of hourly workers, you will get some votes. Hopefully the lesson is learned.


    • Posted by Julian O'Dea on November 11, 2016 at 12:12 am

      Yes. I have noticed that Catholics from Massachusetts for example seem to be fairly lax. A lot of the Catholicism there seems to be merely (Irish) tribal.


  3. Another possibility; thinking people finally woke up to the reality that Scalia is gone. Put a Democrat in the White House, and you have 50 years of liberal tyranny enforced by the Supreme court.


  4. Posted by Julian O'Dea on November 12, 2016 at 9:04 am

    The latest figures I have seen suggest that Trump would have won, narrowly, even without Florida.

    It looks like Trump probably won this in the Rust Belt states.


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